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A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."