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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capacity afforded by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.

Current Realities

Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.